Este proyecto consiste en la construcción de un puente de 8 carriles para una autopista federal. No se ha definido si la estructura del puente será de concreto o bien acero, el proyecto se encuentra en la etapa conceptual pero se tiene contemplado utilizar la estrategia de diseño-secuencial para acelerar la ejecución del mismo. La inversión del proyecto está dividida en un 60% que será aportado por el gobierno federal, la cual está sujeta al cumplimiento de las fechas de entrega por fase de ejecución.
Un 20% será aportado por el gobierno estatal y el 20% por la iniciativa privada, conformada por empresarios que obtendrán beneficios directos de transporte debido a la localización estratégica de sus empresas. El calendario de obra y entrega ha sido ya comprometido públicamente, de manera que muy seguramente se tendrán escenarios de diseño bajo riesgo. El costo estimado del proyecto no ha sido validado y los alcances del mismo no han sido especificados con detalle.
Puntos críticos a considerar:
• El proyecto se lleva acabo utilizando solo un diseño conceptual, careciendo de detalles constructivos y de logística
• Los patrocinadores del proyecto son extranjeros y utilizan a una firma en gerencia de construcción Mexicana como enlace
• La ruta crítica del proyecto se estimó en forma determinística
• No se ha realizado un análisis formal de recursos
• El presupuesto para el proyecto no incluye contingencias
• El crédito utilizado no contempla cambios radicales al proyecto
• La moneda a utilizar para la inversión es inestable
• El contrato de construcción a utilizar tiene limitado el uso de subcontratistas
• Los rendimientos usados para la estimación de duraciones en actividades fueron realizados por una firma Europea
• Es el primer proyecto de inversión en México por parte de este grupo de inversionistas
• Existirán elecciones presidenciales y estatales que pueden afectar al proyecto en términos de permisos de construcción
• Es un proyecto tipo Public-Private-Partnership, la parte gubernamental aportara además la supervisión de obra y recursos de oficina y el derecho de vía
• No se tienen todavía terminados los afores finales para pronosticar los ingresos por cuotas
• Por falta de estudio formal de tráfico, no se sabe el impacto de este con el diseño y capacidad del puente
• Existen problemas con grupos ambientalistas que no están de acuerdo en la construcción del puente
• Además, el gobierno se encuentra en alerta ya que un grupo de ejidatarios probablemente reclame parte del derecho de vía, afectando al proyecto.
Elabore un plan de gerencia de riesgos que incluya:
• Plan de riesgos
• Identificación
• Análisis
• Respuesta
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