Ya desde los años 80 los estudios comenzaron a dirigirse hacia la evaluación del riesgo de violencia ( ROSSI et al. , 1986) basándose en la valoración de los factores de riesgo y la gestión de este riesgo , frente a las teorías basadas en la peligrosidad criminal , más estáticas y deterministas . La evaluación del riesgo se va volviendo sensible a los cambios contextuales y personales de los sujetos y varía a lo largo de un continuo de probabilidad de emisión de conductas violentas (HART, 1997 y HART, 1998 a DOUGLAS et al., 1999).
Mossman (1994) apunta a la necesidad de avanzar en la metodología de recogida de datos, concretamente en el uso de autoinformes (informes del mismo sujeto) e informes de colaterales (entorno relacional del sujeto) en la valoración del riesgo de violencia futura. Los sujetos comienzan a clasificarse en grupos según el nivel de riesgo (Monahan Y Steadman, 1996).
En la década de los 90 ya se disponía de herramientas actuariales de evaluación del riesgo ( Quinsey et al. , 1998 ) , caracterizadas por un registro cuidadoso y detallado de todos los datos relevantes de la historia del sujeto , especialmente de aquellas que se ha demostrado empíricamente que se relacionan con la predicción del comportamiento violento . Ante la necesidad de integrar los hallazgos de la investigación con la práctica clínica de evaluación, se crearon métodos de evaluación clínica estructurada del riesgo (RICE, HARRIS y Quinsey, 2002).
Siguiendo esta línea de trabajo, los investigadores canadienses ANDREWS y Bont (2006), han sintetizado teorías precedentes con las teorías del marco de la criminología del desarrollo y la investigación empírica, en su modelo de riesgo – necesidades – responsividad. Este modelo pretende enfocar las aplicaciones psicológicas en la prevención y el tratamiento de la delincuencia, y establece tres grandes principios:
Riesgo: los individuos que tienen un riesgo más alto en factores estáticos (los que sólo pueden incrementarse o mantenerse igual, no mejorar) requieren intervenciones más intensivas.
Necesidad: los factores dinámicos de riesgo (variables en dos sentidos: pueden empeorar o mejorar) que estén directamente conectados con la actividad delictiva deben suponer los objetivos de los programas de intervención, los factores a modificar.
Responsividad: bajo el principio de la individualización, es necesario ajustar adecuadamente las intervenciones a las características personales y situacionales de los sujetos.
(Generalitat de Catalunya. Departamento de Justicia)
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